Possible catastrophe: Impact event year 2182
The threat of a significant impact has been on the minds of astronomers for decades. There have been movies of varying quality made on the subject.
However, the actual danger has been minimal. But now, scientists from NASA are worried that asteroid 1999 RQ36 might be on a collision course with Earth.
1999 RQ36 is the minor planet designation of an Apollo asteroid discovered by LINEAR in 1999. It has a mean diameter of approximately 560 meters, and has been observed extensively with the Arecibo Observatory Planetary Radar and the Goldstone Deep Space Network.
A recent dynamical study by Andrea Milani and collaborators has located a series of eight potential Earth impacts between 2169 and 2199. The cumulative probability of impact is dependent on poorly known physical properties of the object, but is not higher than 0.07% for all eight encounters. While the chances of impact are roughly 1 in 1000, the threat is real enough to make scientists anxious. The technology needed to deflect such an asteroid is in the theoretical phase of its evolution. And while, the collision won’t happen for another 170 years (if it happens at all), the development of such systems has always been all talk and no action.
To accurately assess RQ36′s probability of Earth impact will require a detailed shape model of the asteroid and at least several more years of radar and optical observations to determine the magnitude of the Yarkovsky acceleration.
Separately, RQ36 has been considered multiple times as the target of spacecraft missions, including OSIRIS, due to the low delta-v required to reach it from Earth orbit.
Should 1999 RQ36 reach Earth, the 560 metres wide rock would have devastating effects. Initially, the fallout would impact life for hundreds of miles in every direction. The long term effects are the greater worry however. With dust a debris launched into the atmosphere, light from the Sun would be irreversibly blocked. The results could mean the death of all life on Earth.
Dr. Michio Kaku often talks about these type of Hollywood scenarios. Provided we have enough time, the best course of action would be merely to nudge the asteroid off its trajectory. Accomplish that however you want to accomplish it, perhaps by landing a small device on the surface that has tiny booster rockets on there.
What you don’t want to do is blow it up since that will only put several destructive objects on a collision course with the planet.
Sounds pretty dire doesn’t it? Well, the truth of the matter is that all of that can be avoided with careful planning. But that means starting now and investing money into diversion technologies so that we are not scrambling at the last minute to devise a plan. That way, we are ready when 1999 RQ36 or some other object finds itself on a collision course with the rock we call home.
